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Fatman

Joined: 08/18/1998 Posts: 22295
Likes: 5833

What's this?

Isn't it true that survivors face permanent lung/heart damage?


You have to factor that into the calculation.

You correctly point out that we lack reliable testing, so the survivability #'s can't be known with precision. Margin for error in the numbers you are citing is likely very high.

To be fare, survivability numbers plummet when hospitals become over-run, something social distancing has proven to be extremely effective in managing. I do not think it is fair to apply the estimated survivability rate to a do-not-social-distance scenario, infection and mortality rates are much higher in that scenario.

I'm glad I'm not left making these decision based on such a lack of data, stakes are extremely high and there is no clear cut easy choice.

(In response to this post by Agoodhokie)

Posted: 04/14/2020 at 10:46AM


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Current Thread:
 
  Freaking Hoos now predicting mid-August COVID peak -- ModerateHokie 04/14/2020 08:05AM
  This model indicates a 99.4% survival, remove nursing homes and it's 99.8. -- Agoodhokie 04/14/2020 10:28AM
  Isn't it true that survivors face permanent lung/heart damage? -- Fatman 04/14/2020 10:46AM
  Stop this now. -- YardBird 04/14/2020 10:45AM
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